Chapman Forecast That's Only Been Wrong Once Since 1944 Has GOP Presidential Win

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A Chapman University presidential forecast equation calls for a Republican presidential win in the November 2012 election.

The Anderson Center for Economic Research data does not identify specific candidates, only the incumbent from each party. And before you label this the fantasy of a GOP-leaning campus behind the fabled Orange Curtain, keep this in mind: the forecast has only been wrong once since 1944 (Kennedy vs. Nixon, 1960). It even predicted Al Gore's popular and George W. Bush's electoral victories in 2000.


The model is based on the approval rating of the incumbent party's sitting president one year prior to the election, the percentage change in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the election year and the percentage change in employment in the election year, according to a Chapman University press release.

"Hello, Chapman? How'd you like some TARP money?"
The forecast shows relatively weak growth in GDP (2.3 percent) and employment (1.1 percent) in 2012, but the real killah for Barack Obama is his 44 percent approval rating in November. No incumbent party candidate with an approval rating below 45 percent a year before the election has won the popular vote since 1944. The forecast has The Chosen One getting smoked by 8.1 percent.

While the forecast correctly predicted the popular vote outcome for 16 of the 17 presidential elections since 1944, Obama can cling to this: that equation had Richard Nixon winning the popular vote by a margin of 3.2 percent in 1960. Instead, Nixon lost it by 0.2 percent.

Of course, the university's model does not take into account dead people voting in Chicago. Hey, where is it Obama's from again?
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7 comments
Bonnie Nelson
Bonnie Nelson

Yeah, I'd be looking for "authoritative" sources like this unknown university poll as well, if I were a conservative Republican right now...

It's not looking good for that collection of oddballs and miscreants. Is it?

Especially when their leading candidate is an ultra-rich Mormon who is hiding his tax returns and who has held every conceivable position on every issue, and then changed it when he thought it would benefit him politically, then changed it back again.

How many more Mitt Flip Flops will we see between now and the election? Probably enough to sink his ship before the GOP convention...

BeeBee
BeeBee

Synchronicity is affirmation. No wanna Obama. Worse.President.Ever.

Briansays
Briansays

when this begins to dawn on the community organizer in chief he will throw biden under the bus in an attempt to save himself and put hillary on the tix as vp giving her a clean shot at 2016

the sad thing is biden has been a better vp than obama has been a presidentand would have even been a better president

20ftJesus
20ftJesus

Look on the bright side, Matt will get to report on Mitt's magic underwear. 

qdpsteve
qdpsteve

Not a bad choice for 2012, Mr. C.Mine would be Perry... so long as it's Katy Perry. :-)

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