Chapman Forecast That's Only Been Wrong Once Since 1944 Has GOP Presidential Win
The Anderson Center for Economic Research data does not identify specific candidates, only the incumbent from each party. And before you label this the fantasy of a GOP-leaning campus behind the fabled Orange Curtain, keep this in mind: the forecast has only been wrong once since 1944 (Kennedy vs. Nixon, 1960). It even predicted Al Gore's popular and George W. Bush's electoral victories in 2000.
The model is based on the approval rating of the incumbent party's sitting president one year prior to the election, the percentage change in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the election year and the percentage change in employment in the election year, according to a Chapman University press release.
|"Hello, Chapman? How'd you like some TARP money?"|
While the forecast correctly predicted the popular vote outcome for 16 of the 17 presidential elections since 1944, Obama can cling to this: that equation had Richard Nixon winning the popular vote by a margin of 3.2 percent in 1960. Instead, Nixon lost it by 0.2 percent.
Of course, the university's model does not take into account dead people voting in Chicago. Hey, where is it Obama's from again?