New York Times Data: OC Elections Aren't Really Contests
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| Ed Royce: Shoo-in elections are fun. |
Do we have real congressional election contests in the Orange County/Long Beach area or, despite all the hullabaloo, is the whole affair preordained?
Data from The New York Times, based on FiveThirtyEight Forecasts, shows the answer isn't necessarily uplifting.
In 100,000 computer simulations, they're making the following predictions for the November 2 general election:
--Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has a 99.8% chance of beating challenger Ken Arnold.
--Incumbent Ed Royce has a 99.9% chance of beating challenger Christina Avalos.
--Incumbent Gary Miller has a 99.8% chance of beating challenger Michael Williamson.
--Incumbent Ken Calvert has a 98.6% chance of beating challenger Bill Hedrick.
--Incumbent Darrell Issa has a 100% chance of beating challenger Howard Katz.
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| Issa: Everybody loves me! |
--Incumbent Loretta Sanchez has an 88.3% chance (this is down from 95% just two weeks ago) of beating challenger Van Tran.
--Incumbent John Campbell has a 99.5% chance of beating challenger Beth Krom.
In California's U.S. Senate race, they give incumbent Barbara Boxer an 84% chance of beating Carly Fiorina; and Jerry Brown an 89.9 chance of beating Meg Whitman in the state's open seat governor's race.
--R. Scott Moxley / OC Weekly
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