Website Predicts When Next Earthquake Will Hit

Categories: OC Media
How far is Kobe, Japan, from 92626 again?

"Open Hazards is a group of scientists, technologists, and business people dedicated to the proposition that, through advances in forecasting and sensor technology, as well as an open, web-based approach to public information availability and sharing, we can enable a more sustainable human society in the face of severe, recurring natural disasters."

In other words, the geniuses--who apparently include reputable and well-known seismologists-- behind forecast earthquakes anywhere in the world . . .

. . . including, gulp, Orange County.

On the first page of the site is a form where you can type in your location and how far in advance--from one week to 5 years, with several intervals in between--you want to know the chances there will be an earthquake that registers 5.0 or greater on the Richter Scale.

Sitting in the 92626 ZIP Code, that's what I just punched in. Here's what I was told:

* There's 3.20 percent chance of a 5.0 or greater quake within 50 miles of 92626 (the north Costa Mesa area) in the next month.
* There's a 32 percent chance in the next year.
* There's an 86 percent chance in the next 5 years.


Change the setting to quakes within 25 miles of 92626, and the odds improve (of not getting shaken, not the other way around).

* There's at 0.36 percent chance of a quake 5.0 or greater within 25 miles of 92626 in the next month.
* There's a 4.3 percent chance in the next year.
* There's a 20 percent chance in the next 5 years.

And there's a 100 percent chance predictin' scares the bejesus outta me!

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